Thosha You are missing something from your walkthrough on Nalili's Quest, Chapter 5 Sovereign, Part 10.
Your playthrough states: "49 Days, 40 Knowledge, 39 Sex, 49 Social"
This is not the case. What I have is "49 Days, 39 Knowledge, 38 Sex, 49 Social)
The variance between your playthrough now and what it was a month ago is that your playthrough no longer calls for Nalili to be give a shard, and two investments including the palace shielding upgrade and the Philon Border reinforcement are not now done the way they were before. The sex shortage causes immediate failure here:
"Go to the Palace Prison last cell and "Seduce""
With less than 40 sex, Seduce cannot be done.