Yeah, I always go with light reforms if I side with Keranni, cause otherwise we need to burn influence with Hester instead. The problem with Keranni is that ... she doesn't ask much (or anything at all, tbh) but she doesn't help much either. Esmera outright annihilates the unity vote and helps the succubus vote in day 2 while Keranni does nothing.
About the Unpeople Vote, unless the church diverges, Esmera actually helps more so long as the Unpeople motion in Ardford failed. Allow me to make a short summary of which vote favours which priestess:
Succubi Join vote: Esmera
(Assuming succubi join)
Succubi accept vote: equal
Unpeople: Esmera, unless the church diverges (then it's equal)
Okay so for Tak'kan vote it gets complex. If you're not planning to target either, then Keranni's better. Otherwise pay attention to Keranni's synod score.
Purity vote: Esmera. That 2 Kaskia influence can really hurt, especially on top of the 3 influence she receives when her proposal wins. Unless you support the NUP or divert either Yelarel, Elleani, or Tyna to the promotion vote (endangering the fucklord vote), this could turn into a quagmire.
Some personal comments: The Gawnfall Council has a special place in my heart. The politicking is just plain awesome.