Combined 1st Round Debuff:
The deficit in Vhala's 1st round damage isn't made up by Ginasta's 2nd round tyrant strike and Varia's and Simon's increased damaged output. Note that you can sub out heirloom pin II with a ring of strength on Ginasta without lowering the likelihood of suppressing strike applying the debuff too much.
I have not really played the minus path, but I'd be more inclined to give the 4th slot to Aka or Robin than to Qum because the base damage is probably more important than the buff. I'd give Aka the slight preference to Robin because of Fuzkao's higher MDF and the ability to give Vhala an extra full powered attack on turn 1. But neither Aka nor Robin are really going to be able to outclass Simon with the tormented shield enough to make a difference in the outcome.
If someone wants to playtest the minus path with Varia + Vhala + Ginasta + Qum and the theoretically optimal equipment loadouts I've described, please let me know how it goes.