Fulminato
assumption works outside occam's razor field of application. i alwasy find relevant state them in the open. better be pedantic to make implicit assumption and the other miss it.
i know to well occam principle. both the origial one and the scientific use.
That's cool. You surely understand it better than I do, then. But I don't like to assume these sorts of things, it's why I keep describing where my movie references and things come from. I don't want to assume you do know these things, and I don't want to shame you if you don't. I'm used to hearing about Occam's Razor from philosophers who use it as a means of trying to make the most rational guess you can before you actually have all of the pieces of data. The classic example is "You hear the sound of trampling hooves outside your house, but by the time you get to the front door, all you see are hoofprints. Occam's Razor says it's more likely that it was horses running by than, say, one big horse with dozens of hooves, or unicorns, or what-have-you.". From my clearly lay-person's understanding of the term, it seemed to fit. But I bow to your expertise in this area and I would be grateful if you could please point out why Occam's Razor is not a good fit for this scenario?
i strongly disagree. we don't know for sure the "right" answer, but we can for sure some answer are totaly wrong.
recently in a similar discussion i used a parallelism, we don't know the numbers fo stars in our galaxy, but for sure isn't ten.
I concede this point and admit that it was poorly phrased on my part. Not all answers would be equally wrong. I had intended to say that no answer can currently be "right". But, yes, we can definitely strive to make more cogent arguments. I'd hoped my setting out to do exactly this would help to illustrate the point but, alas, no such luck.
BurningHeretic So, I put forth the theory that the Anak has a plan and he doesn't want Xestris involved. With the extra corollary that he doesn't intend to survive past the execution of his plan.
the evidence of this theory is based? because the few scrap we know about xerces grand plan, from ginasta, poin in the opposite direction (They would be a sterile and dogmatic tyrant). he goal is to control of law of reality, whatever it's his realy aim without him preserving the change he made anyone will be free to revert the thing back were are before or make totaly different one frustrating anak works. for build a new order some must guard and preserve it.
To quote Sarai: "It's little more than a hunch, at this point. Deal with it, motherfucker." Or, heck. You could even call it a "Wild Speculation". But you're right. I should limit such fever-dreams to a thread where it's more appropriate to discuss such things. You seem pretty knowledgable, could you direct me to the appropriate thread for WILD SPECULATION?
Seriously, what do you want from me? I can't point to a specific event flag, you've got me there. I put forth a theory that I thought fairly readily explained everything I'd witnessed. A more tidy theory than anything you've put forth, I might add. And you've been shitting on it from minute one. Why the hostility? I'm having a cool time with everyone else I talk to here, even through disagreements (I hope). But you've been, just, a pill. This entire time.
if one want analyze a situation, all the possibility must be sift every scenario. i don't think xestris had the raw power to kill simon single handing without exaust him and his power a lot before the attempt. but stab in the back isn't only a killing blow, be in the right position to foil simon plan in a crucial momento will works to. she can be a spy and/or a saboteur as the situation will arise. but in this case the anak never "threw her aside" but the whole scene is a ruse.
I agree with your assessment of Xestris' abilities. This isn't even a concession on my part. I not only said exactly this, I was restating your point of view at the time, just to make sure I had my argument set up properly. I'll address this further in a later statement, but just remember I said that.
if we assume the ruse, xestris is a contingency against simon if he will come to close to ruin anak's plan.
if the scene isn't a ruse there are two other scenarios to evaluate. first he know how the gathering will end from the start so he plan everything, discarge xestris included. or he doesn't know. so send xestris in a suicide mission is motivated to gain the time needed to power up the defence and anything other his plan need when "business as usual" ended. in this case there isn't any grand scheme beyond the last command he gave her. "i need a bit of time, xestris utility is ended and i don't have any real works for her, so use her to gain that time is a good plan"
I addressed all three of these points quite adequately, and none of this is in response to what actually said in addressing those points. Again, I will be responding to this more later. Just go ahead and mark this as "Exhibit B".
the main problem is your arguments are lacking in solidity and you avoid to analyze some facts and scenarios going against your point of view. there are to much "i want happy ending so, i think everyone is a an happy buddy and will be an happy ending" for me. [i think TLS will be an happu ending, but not will be a qum dream]
Again, I did. And your dismissal of those points without actually addressing any of them doesn't exactly make you look good. Almost like you're avoiding some facts and scenarios that might go against your point of view. I've gathered that you can be somewhat dismissive of arguments from psychology, but maybe read up on "Projection".
And if you think the scenario I'm describing will lead to a happier, less complex narrative, then just try to picture Xestris begging and pleading with the man who kicked her aside to please come back to her, and imagine you failing whatever check is needed and him just committing suicide or whatever grand sacrifice his plan requires, right in front of the one person on earth who would genuinely miss him if he died, and you could've prevented it.
anak - esthera relation is null. in the first gathering she said "Our nations share a border, you know. We don't have to wait for a Gathering to talk to each other.". basicaly both ignore each other. you don't ignore one you respected for once. second the odd aren't in favord of DK-Esthera. the eventualit of the LL win is very concrete. and what will be the fate of xestris in this case? or you can divinate the future or you will make a bet, in this case a risky bet, if you are willing to take it, you don't have a to high value of xestris life.
It's not "Null" it's, at worst, "Neutral". And the difference here is, I think, worth getting pedantic over. "Null" means he just has no formed opinions on the Empress. "Neutral" means, in this case, that he feels he can safely ignore her. And that could mean that he just views the Empress as incompetent, but if the Anak looks at Esthera and sees nothing to be concerned over, then my opinion of his intelligence doesn't exactly go up. Might not want to lean too hard on that argument.
BurningHeretic However, for the Anak to use Xestris as some sort of (possibly Manchurian Candidate styled sleeper) agent, then all the ground-work for that has to be done (And The Manchurian Candidate is already a fairly obtuse plot. Seriously, You should read/watch it sometime.), and in such a way that Simon's research team finds NO indications of it, otherwise, Xestris will just be "disarmed" and all that work is less than worthless. In addition, Xerces would have to do all of this without her knowledge (Keeping it secret from a constant companion, trusted co-worker, and lover) OR (if she is a co-conspirator) Xestris would have to be a good enough liar to fool absolutely everyone about her purpose. A skill that takes a degree of nuance that she has not displayed. So, either she's genuinely unaware or she's faking that lack of nuance, adding even more complexity to this argument.
you are mixing two incompatible scenarios.
And here's where we come back to all those things I said I'd address. 'Cause I'm really not. Seriously, I even capitalized the entire word "or", up there. I'm not "mixing scenarios". Here: Lemme' paste the statement in here again and modify it slightly with some nice, helpful paragraph breaks.
BurningHeretic However, for the Anak to use Xestris as some sort of (possibly Manchurian Candidate styled sleeper) agent, then all the ground-work for that has to be done (And The Manchurian Candidate is already a fairly obtuse plot. Seriously, You should read/watch it sometime.), and in such a way that Simon's research team finds NO indications of it, otherwise, Xestris will just be "disarmed" and all that work is less than worthless. In addition, Xerces would have to do all of this without her knowledge (Keeping it secret from a constant companion, trusted co-worker, and lover)
OR
(if she is a co-conspirator) Xestris would have to be a good enough liar to fool absolutely everyone about her purpose. A skill that takes a degree of nuance that she has not displayed. So, either she's genuinely unaware or she's faking that lack of nuance, adding even more complexity to this argument.
Now, let's watch you proceed to spend two paragraphs arguing against a point I never made because reading comprehension is a skill-set you still need to work on.
one is "that scene is a ruse and he never throw her away" xerces and xestris agree to play it for the possibility to xestris to works very closely to simon and act if he will be in collision with anak's plan [the action she can take and the degree simon's action going against anak's plan is debatable] in this case both are willing to take the risk to achive a big goal (an agent inside simon's defense). in this case the anak can or cannot have some friendship thought toward her second-in-command. we cannot be sure.
the other is "the scene is genuine and he ditch her"in this case xerces don't think xestris help will do much for his real plan. and he send her to die or because he want be sure to have the time he need to start whatever he had planned, or because the lie he served to her will make her works against hin in the long run. in both case xestris for the anak is only a tool he build for some purpose, she had done her works and he use her for the last time or he discrage her because is useless now.
can be both wrong, but they cannot both right. mixing piece of one scenario with the other... will make little sense.
Yeah, see that? That's a bunch of time spent refuting a claim that no-one made. Not a good look, friend. Honestly make you come off as a bit naive. Maybe don't go casually insulting other people's intelligence while failing at basic reading and comprehension. English isn't your first language, I know. And it hurts to have it pointed out this abruptly, I know. Point is, you're the only one I'm this acerbic with on this forum. And that's solely because I'm reacting to, well, you. I don't want to be this kinda' person. I don't want to piss on someone because they speak English as a second language. But you keep talking down to people here and it's getting on my nerves.
i think after the next open world section we will be in the middle of chapter 5.
you are underestimating the broken of the old status quo will change the field.
the mysterious third party had make is move. they send perhaps a dozen explosive chosen, perhaps more, to the gathering of all the soul shards in the world. the distruption of divine energy for doing it is massive, this can open a crack in their redefence.
anak real plan is in motion, i think he never served balance first, but only because will leave him in a strong position against every other (about the same line of @Decanter thinking) xestris can or cannot be part of it, that it isn't relevant at this level.
GoM protection are falling, in a definitive way. tanurak can put a false trail, or not. but the goddess will be high relevant from this point onward. she and ivala are piece on the table now. [before they were outside the "playing field"]
in the material plane there isn't any power can battle simon social control. every nation not controlled by him [yhilin, chalice, tak'kan, erosia, rodak {soonTM}], his vassal [stenai, orgasmic empire] or his allies [new givini, ghenalon, zirantia, eustrin] are toothless (mostly philon, ardoheim {because tyna isn't the queen yet} and aram, the elven forests can or cannot be included, but hey are powerless)
BurningHeretic Xerces has been feeding Xestris a line of bullshit for the entire time they've existed together. And that requires a mind simultaneously so cracked that even Tanurak would suggest therapy AND still cogent and high-functioning enough to outthink everyone else in the tower for longer than Simon's been alive. A list of parties that includes Alonon, Ulrissa, the Fucklord (who understood enough about the deeper workings of the tower to almost singlehandedly overthrow Zirantia.), The sage of Ghenalon, and (more recently) Simon's crew. All from a plan he developed before he'd even made Xestris. We are now talking about a person who, from sheer Machiavellian scheming alone, is on par with Ozymandias from The Watchmen (a character so unbelievably over-the-top, part of his plan involved tricking a precognitive superhero by making him too sad to see the future). Add on to that immortality, a deep well of personal power, the wealth of a nation, and a literal army.
i think you are naive. (o desperately try to defend your position as the only reasonable) an person with enough drive can keep up a mask for decades without problem. if one is realy committed this is nothing to pull off. if you see a thing not a person, a tool you craft for doing some job you will never have any "nice" think about it, it's an object, a useful object because don't need micromanagment for works right, but it is an object, nothing more., you can trash it without problem.
And the ability to do that more-or-less requires one to either be a sociopath or a narcissist
OR
it requires one to condition their mind to be able to think like a narcissist or sociopath. It's not actually just a switch you can just flip on and off. Not for most people. That's the point I was trying to make. You seem to think that compartmentalization can just scale upwards into infinity but it doesn't. Not for most people. And if you can...Well, best not to follow that thought to it's conclusion.
All of which leads back to the point I was trying to make.
BurningHeretic How? Logistically speaking, how is this version of the Anak not already ruling the entire world? If he has even a single whim for how the world should be run then what, I ask you, is preventing him from just making it that way? Screw all this tower nonsense. He's smarter than everyone in the world combined, why doesn't he just trick everyone into doing things his way? Use a mix of spies and political agitators. Get a Trin. You can afford one. The Fucklord had a Trin. Trins are great. You can just buy them. The fact that the world is not already under his control is de facto evidence against him being this inhumanly nefarious.
And the answer you have for this question is:
first, there is the mysterious third party, you often forget them, they are skilled enough to avoid any attemp to detect them by all the tower entity in the world. they producing chosen for years, perhpas decaeds, their works feel malicious, but no one know why. [not alanon, not ulrissa nor the anak] anak cannot act indisturbated until this misterious entity is deal with. both the GoM and the Anak are preparing for a war in the tower, a war i think start now with the opening move the attack to the gathering. another wildcards are the core forces, there are some, all works to keep the cycle of ages running. anti-tyrann force (ginasta) will stop any excessive centralization of the shards, the anti-stagnation (lilith) force ensure that everything will change for nothing to change. we know there are another two or three fundamental force, perhaps some are devoted to stop what the anak want and he need to change them for keep his plan to falling apart by the balancing mechanisms of the reality.
When did the Anak find out about the cold light, the peaceful gray, and the terrible warmth? I don't remember him being in the room for that conversation. Sorry to ask you to do my legwork for me but I genuinely don't know how he'd know about Ginasta's prophecies. And if he didn't hear that prophecy, or hear of it, then how does he know about the interference from the 3rd entity? I'm again asking honestly here. I'm assuming you know something I don't and am honestly asking you for clarification.
Anyway, the point still stands. What could a 3rd party, mysterious though they may be, do to actually stop (this version of) the Anak's plans? If he's this grand 3-D Chessmaster, if he's as socially savvy, as emotionally manipulative, as rich, as powerful, and as experienced as he either is evidenced to be or would have to be in order to fit all the known data, then what could anyone do to stop him? He'd have to be more ruthless than Tanurak, more patient than Ulrissa, more insightful than Anolon...I've already compared this version of the Anak to Ozymandias, a character who was written to be able to out-think a God-tier precognitive Super-hero. Seriously, what could even slow down someone like that? The Chosen didn't end up doing any real harm and, using only the knowledge that I can reasonably expect Xerces to have access to, I don't see why anything that [whoever the source of the chosen is] does should be a cause for concern for 3-D Chessmaster Anak.
But IF the Anak has been waiting for longer then Xestris' entire life for this one opportunity,
And IF (as we've already agreed) He doesn't respect her combat capability enough to reasonably expect her to kill a rested and aware Simon,
AND IF The Anak never valued Xestris' life,
Then why did he take the time to even say goodbye? You say to "buy time" but we've already agreed she's not a top-tier combatant. Not on this battlefield. She'd last, what? 2 rounds against the Lustlord? Who probably isn't even on the Anak's radar and definitely isn't one of the three from Ginasta's Prophecy. Why would he take the time to give her orders, and then reiterate them to his confused "tool", if that likely takes up more time than it buys? Even if she's only supposed to help Simon and/or the Empress, how much help could she offer that would be worth the time it took to give her orders?
no, this isn't the (modern) form of the razor. a more precise definition will be, "if two model describe the same phenomenon with the same result and precision the simplest is the one beign taken"
even if the simplest mean you know less about the mechanism of the world. what you want it's the prediction of the model coincide with the experimental measures. nothing more, nothing less.
Cool, cool. Hey, quick question. Why can't that same logic extrapolate out to rhetorical scenarios? 'Cause I put forth a rhetorical scenario that explained a set of phenomena with an apparent result identical to yours, but mine gets to that point a lot more simply. And all you've offered up as a counter-argument is "I understand Occam's Razor better than you and it doesn't work here.". If you have such a deep and personal working relationship with the theory, then surely explaining how I'm using it wrong wouldn't be too much of a chore, would it?
for your question:
simon group tower capability aren't small, they have less experience and expertise compared the anak or even the lustlord, but their progression is impressionant, in a couple of years they pass from "don't know the existence of the tower" to "one the most skilled groups in the world about tower exploration and understanding" leave them free to works for few decades and they will put everyone else at shame.
because the point above the possibility to simon's group to become a unwanted disturbing element in anak equations is pretty high, give them enough time. so he need someone keeping an eye about your his works
a no so much skilled agent will be never be able to join simon's group, if an agent want monitor simon's works close should be able to give an meaningful help in the matter to be alloed in the right circle.
because this he need someone with great tower understanding to be able to monitor simon's works (both beign able at all and be able to undesrtand right), and he say "Send subordinates if you wish, but I think you'll find them too weak to be effective in the Tower" nothing less of xestris will be able to spy in a effective way simon's team.
That...is a well-put-together argument. Yeah, I concede the point. She would be a uniquely qualified covert agent as a tower-walker. She even displayed effective enough stealth capabilities to hide from both the Fucklord and Ulrissa while close enough to monitor them.
It's not a perfect explanation, yet. But it answers, like, 80% of my concerns. I still contend that Xestris just isn't that good of a liar, there've been too many unguarded moments from her. If she's deliberately staging those to fool Simon, then she's a good enough liar that it beggars belief. Remember, we're dealing with fiction, here. Believability is a thing that you have to keep track of if you're writing a story. You'd want a, like, "Checkhov's fib", I guess. Something you could point to and say "See! She CAN tell a lie, after all.". That way the player can get that nice, clever feeling of having figured it out before it's too late. Sierra Lee has been pretty good about adding those sorts of things everywhere else in TLS, but I can't recall seeing a scene like that for Xestris.
I'll tell you what: If I was trying to write a cagey covert operative and ruthless saboteur, I'd be aiming for her to sink her clutches into the one person I've seen specifically act in a protective manner toward her: Nalili (she moves to comfort and protect Xestris during the orgy). If Xestris is some sort of agent provocateur, then I'll bet that she starts her work by trying to cozy up to Nalili. It's not sufficient evidence by itself, because Nalili's already been kind to her, and that sort of thing tends to attract people, especially people who've recently been hurt. But if it happens, that'd at least support your theory.
And if she's not in on it then I don't know how she'll be activated, collected, or debriefed. And, again, I know that not ALL of her potential roles involved being able to do ALL of those things, but she'd still need to be activated. That's a thing you gotta' do with sleeper agents. S'one of the reasons real-life intelligence agencies don't tend to rely on them. And Simon's team has several specialists that bring a unique outlook to the field of counter-espionage. Trin, Riala, Aka, Dari: getting a spy past all of them combined talent is no small feat. Especially when they have just as much reason as you or I to be suspicious of this new friend. If his plan is to use her as a sleeper agent, then I think that would be a bad plan, sure, but not one stupid enough to take me out of the story. Yeah. Yeah I could honestly see her being an unwitting pawn. But that'd likely be found out and defused fairly quickly with Simon's crew, So I'm not super worried about that. I still think it's unlikely, but ont outlandish.
BurningHeretic It most definitely is not. Philon has a standing army (Probably) and whatever defenses have been set up for it. Y'know who else has those? Every nation on the planet. Y'know what Philon doesn't have while Xerces' doin' his Tower shenanigans? An Incubus King. Those tend to be a big deal, geopolitically. There have been some other moments in the game that have kinda' hinted at that. A war or two. Little things. Philon without the Anak can protect Xestris from, I guess, Zirantia. Maybe Rodak. But the safest place for Xestris is where someone powerful and well-inclined toward her can keep an eye on her. Now if only we had some in-game evidence of him attempting to put her in a place and mindset where she'd be easily recruited just before he left her...
you understand you basicaly go against anything in the game tell us about philon situation? if even xestris words are all lie, robin assessment are usualy pondered and accurate. she said "forget philon, he is aim only at the tower".
I agree that Xerces' goals are primarily, if not exclusively, in the Tower. But
IF even one of the Anak's goals is to protect Philon, Xestris, or both, for whatever reason,
THEN the worst way to defend any or all of those things is to leave them on the ground without an Incubus King. I don't care what defenses they've been working on. NOTHING has shown the ability to actually STOP an Incubus King when they see what they want. Not the Wall of Ivala, nor towers full of sorcerers, nor whatever goddess King Kanfuor managed to cobble together. You can distract an Incubus King (In fact they seem more susceptible to this tactic than most foes). You can dissuade an Incubus King, especially if there are more appealing targets in view. You can slow an Incubus King down. You can even push an Incubus King into retreat, but nothing keeps them from coming right back tomorrow. Neither armies, nor the most advanced magic, nor the most dedicated tyrant-slayers (well, okay. Ginasta DID kill the Skullcrusher). The only thing that reliably acts as a foil for an Incubus King...is another Incubus King. In theory, goddesses are supposed to take down Kings Incubi, but when was the last time you saw that happen?
No, if Xerces wants to keep Xestris safe, Philon is insufficient to the task. He needs a world power that has shown itself to be either benign or at worst, neutral to his interests. Both of which, At the time of Xerces' decision, are moving to engage a third world power that, conveniently, has been a thorn in the Anak's side for too long.
BurningHeretic No. No, you didn't, Ralke. Is that something we need to talk about? Do you have plans for the Emperor of Mankind? Perhaps some desire to liberate the Earth from his clutches?
sorry, my impression was to you know a bit of warhammer 40K lore. i'm talking about him [and i i'm a loyalist eh]
the bit relevant to us is:
after he unified earth he want do the same with the galaxy, because him alone was insufficient for the monumental tasks (and keep in mind he cannot litteraly die of old age) he create twenty primarch to lead his twenty legions of transuman space marine in conquering the stars. there is a little problem, after the imperium of man will be completed the need of space marine and their primarch will end, so he plan to remove them. they are 18 (2 are removed and no record of them remain) super warrior (all of them cannot die of old age) with enough power up to border the cheating threshold, and they are at the head of thousands and thousands supersoldier with the best wargear the empire can muster. if they discover the real plan will revolt and even the emperon cannot whistand the blow. so he play the role of the benevolent father with them to keep them working in his plan conquering the galaxy, while secretly plotting their demise, and this facade hold for centuries (roughly 200/250 years). in the end the plan doesn't go very well, some of them discovered the thrut and rebelled... [well the full story is more complicated of this, but it isn't relevant in this discussion]. compared to this a century of false smile the anak use with xestris is nothing {if the scene is genuine, i'm not sure of it, can be or can be not}.
Ah. You're a Warhammer 40K fan. Oh dear, and a diehard fan of that whole weird "Imperial Cult" thing. I now understand why you would accept it as perfectly normal for characters to have extremes of personality so overblown than they make comic book characters look like moral philosophers. That would explain why my arguments based on human psychology would fall on deaf ears. Thanks for clearing that up. Normally I'd try to make the argument that a storyline written by fans of miniature wargaming to fans of miniature wargaming for the purpose of facilitating miniature wargaming might not stand up to the closest scrutiny when viewed through any other lens but...
...Yeah, no. I don't have a means of even explaining my point to you in a way that you can even parse, let alone understand.
Okay.
I concede all points. You are right. And I am clearly Cumdump levels of naive. That is the only way I could get to the point of view that I possess. Er, possessed. Clearly, Xestris is a ticking time-bomb and every moment that I allow her to live is a critical second that I will never get back. Or she's worthless. One of the two.
And when (not if but when) you get proven right, I will be both shamed by my own stupidity and left awestruck as your pure and unfettered rationality once again wins the day. I shall join the teeming throng of those who were foolish enough to have doubted you.
But...lemme' just make a bet with you. Just to double down on my blatant stupidity. Nothing serious, mind. Just a wager of words. And let me just lock myself into a pretty rigid framework for this bet so I don't have any wiggle room later on:
IF, later on in gameplay, the Anak can be talked down from his plan (whatever it is)
AND IF Xestris plays a noteworthy role in talking him down from his plan
Then could you, rational person that you are, concede that maybe, just maybe, I might have picked up on some cues that you missed in your playthrough?